Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.