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Initially, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a firm position concerning Ukraine. Following delivering statements of "severe repercussions" in August if Putin continued obstructing truce discussions, he finally enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously impacted the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in the region.

But, with his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, that was created by American and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU involvement, he has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's plan would essentially reward the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in peril. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", much of the initiative effectively compromise that same sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business experience, the former president seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple land disagreement, as if giving Putin a section of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. But, Putin's military campaign is not merely about occupying a destroyed region of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's apparent intention to weaken it so it stops acts as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the democratic government that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in place the already separated regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would force Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with area that its military have been unable to seize in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this giveaway would render Ukraine's military defenses critically compromised.

This region is the location of the nation's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified military defenses that are a critical barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, providing Putin a unobstructed route to the capital if he eventually choose to renew the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a action that would enable renewed hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the size of its military from their current large number troops to a cap of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's plan imposes no similar limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "Every Nazi ideology and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by holding elections in Russia.

Security Commitments

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent treaties in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to recognize Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a restoration of seized territory in the region to Ukrainian control – how should the international community believe this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on international security guarantees. Although the initiative promises a "strong joint armed reaction" in case Russia renew its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the details vary from fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, effectively blocking the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Russia from restoring his weakened troops, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Concern

Another side agreement apparently would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault endangering the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a military response. But in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against future invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of Western powers, like Trump, to act with force to Russia's attacks, something they have {not