War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".