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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd